True Unemployment Remains Above 23%. ~Shadow Stats.

The jobless rate fell to 9 percent in October from 9.1 percent, the Labor Department said Friday morning. with employers creating 80,000 net new jobs last month.  The true unemployment for the U.S. is 23% defined by the top line in the graph above.

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.

The numbers were lower than analysts’ predictions that the economy would add 95,000 new jobs last month. Media outlets are spinning “surprisingly positive news stating that the Department of Labor revised upward its earlier estimates of August and September job creation by a combined 102,000 jobs. Stripping out the 45,000 workers from Verizon returning to work in September, the number of jobs added to the U.S. economy  during this combine period is closer to 57,000.  Further concern is that the ratio of people with jobs to the overall population remains anemic at only 58.4 percent.

I predict we’ll see static numbers for the balance of 2011 even withe addition of seasonal hiring.  The jobs numbers will go negative quickly in 2012 once these seasonal workers are dismissed.

John Williams Shadow Government Statistics is firm that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype.  For more on their work go here.

Posted on November 4, 2011, in Economy & HR, Uncategorized and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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