Shadow Stats: True Unemployment Is 23%.


Job gains in September were 103,000 but Verizon workers returning from their organized strike boosted the total of 103,000. Stripping out the 45,000 workers from Verizon returning to work, the number of jobs added to the U.S. economy falls closer to the consensus estimate of 55,000 jobs.

Challenger Gray & Christmas earlier this week said employers announced 115,730 firings in September, a 212% jump from a year ago and a 126% increase over the prior month. The announced layoffs are the largest total since April 2009. Planned job cuts by Bank of America and the U.S. Army accounted for almost 70% of the announcements.  I predict we’ll see anemic numbers for the balance of 2011 even withe addition of seasonal hiring.  The jobs numbers will go negative quickly in 2012 once these seasonal workers are dismissed.

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.
John Williams Shadow Government Statistics is firm that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype.  For more on their work go here.
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Posted on October 7, 2011, in Economy & HR and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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