Beware: Faulty Unemployment Numbers Coming.


So ADP is out with their monthly employment report claiming that private employment rose by 91,000 in September.  Problem is ADP has been way off lately.  I’d be willing to bet that they included returning Verizon workers.  Oh, and U.S. employers announced plans in September to shed more than 115,000 workers — the highest total in more than two years, according to a new jobs report.

That’s more than double the 51,000 cuts announced in August and more than three times the 37,000 cuts planned a year earlier. The previous record was in April 2009, when employers planned to slash nearly 133,000 jobs, according to employment consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

So we’ll get the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report on Friday.  Last month, the economy added exactly zero jobs overall, and 14 million Americans still remain unemployed. Economists expect September’s numbers to be a slight improvement, but not enough to make a noticeable dent in the unemployment rate.   Keep these in mind as you read the spin.

  • In 1982 the unemployment rate was 9.1 %.
  • The economy has added just 400,000. Our workforce population has increased by 28 million.
  • Only 58 percent of the work-age population are employed
  • 5. 6 million workers have been out of work for at least six months
  • 40 weeks is the average duration of unemployment.
  • 16.7 % is the unemployment rate for blacks, 11.3 % for Hispanics and 8 % for whites.
  • 25.4 % of youth are unemployed,  adult men are 8.9 % and  adult women 8.0 %
  • 250,000 to 300,000 jobs per month need to be added to reduce unemployment rate.  Since the “recovery” began the private sector added 105,000 jobs per month. The economy needs to add 175,000 jobs per month just to maintain status quo.
  • 2.6 million are considered marginally attached to the labor force, up 200,000 from a year earlier. Nearly another million are discouraged.
  • The Federal Reserve expects the unemployment rate to be between 8.6 & 8.9% at year-end.
  • 18.5 % of the total workforce remains underemployed.

The guy I think does the best job of identifying the real unemployment numbers (along with other statistical gems is John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics.  You can read his work here.  At the end of August he showed real unemployment at 23%.

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Posted on October 5, 2011, in Economy & HR, Hiring & Jobs News, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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